Severe Weather and Heat Wave Predictions for Texas in May
As Texas faces the last month of the meteorological spring, citizens of the Lone Star state are curious about the weather pattern they can expect. While the transition into May usually brings intermittent 100-degree days, the average temperatures commonly stay comfortable in the 80s during the day and drop to a cooler 60 in the night. But May is also historically the peak of severe weather season, averaging 315 severe hail reports and 40 tornado reports each year. So, as everyone braces for the upcoming weather changes, what does May have in store for Texas, in terms of heat and storms?
Temperature Outlook for May
The long-range weather models anticipate a high probability of above-average temperatures across Texas during the first two weeks of May. However, forecasting beyond ten days is not a definite science, as individual weather models can exhibit inconsistency. As a result, meteorologists rely on ensemble modeling, which averages multiple models with various initial conditions, providing a reasonable expectation for the next month.
For May, both the modernized Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Model (ECMWF) ensembles predict slightly above-average temperatures for the next 30 to 35 days. How does this information translate to everyday life? The anticipations imply that while not every day will surpass average temperatures, the overall monthly weather will indeed be somewhat warm.
Corroborating the ensembles’ prediction, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s Monthly Outlook offers similar insights. It projects a 90% chance of near- or above-average temperatures in San Antonio in May, leaving just a 10% probability for below-average temperatures.
What About Storms in May?
Though estimating the extent of severe weather in Texas for May poses a considerable challenge, model ensemble projections for rainfall amounts provide a reasonable clue. The analysis unveils a disagreement between the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. The ECMWF expects above-average rainfall for much of Central and East Texas, and near-average precipitation for San Antonio. In contrast, the GEFS envisages below-average rainfall from San Antonio to Houston.
Integrating these predictions, it is reasoned that San Antonio is predicted to experience either average or slightly under average rainfall during May. However, this must not be mistaken as the absence of hazardous weather. Remember, May is typically San Antonio’s stormiest month of the year, indicating that despite the slightly below-average rainfall prediction, residents can still expect occasional severe storms and heavy rain.
The Climate Prediction Center echoes this sentiment. Their outlook gives San Antonio an ‘equal chance’ for either above-average or below-average rainfall. The same holds true for the Houston metro area, while parts of Central and North Texas are favored for above-average rainfall, with far West Texas leaning towards below-average precipitations.
Final Words
While long-range forecasts may not be accurate down to every detail, they provide us with a critical understanding of what we can anticipate and how we can prepare. Texans should take this information into account and brace themselves for the likely heat and potential severe weather conditions that may accompany the transition into summer.