Scorching Highs Expected to Prevail over South Texas
South Texas is bracing itself for some relentless heat this week with expected highs that could rewrite the region’s weather books. San Antonio, the heart of the state, is to particularly bear the heat torch.
Record-Breaking Temperatures
Monday and Tuesday see a perfect mixing bowl of high pressure from the western states extending its reach eastward, combined with relatively dry air hovering over south Texas that could lead to record-breaking temperatures. Cool temperatures are to be enjoyed in the Monday morning calm before the storm as the lows dip into the mid-temps during the early hours, especially between 5 am and 8 am. The surrounding Hill Country regions, including Fredericksburg, Kerrville, and Boerne are likely to chill down further.
However, as the day progresses, temperatures are poised to sky-rocket fast, courtesy of the sunny skies and low humidity values. By 10 a.m., San Antonio will hit the 80-degree mark before climbing to 90 degrees by noon. The afternoon period is expected to set a new high for the city at 97 degrees, a degree higher than the previous record for a September 30, which dates back to 2019.
It’s not just Monday that’ll sizzle under the heat. With October ringing in on Tuesday, similar high temperatures grace the day. With morning lows in the mid-to-upper 60s, the afternoon period threatens to hit between 96 and 97 degrees, challenging the daily record set back in 1989.
Rising Moisture as the Week Progresses
There’s a silver lining for residents in the middle of the week as the high pressure weakens and moisture seeps up, leading to a slight dip in the afternoon highs between 93 and 95 degrees, from Wednesday to Thursday. Yet, these temperatures are still well above the norm for early October.
The downfall to the rise in moisture is the inefficient cooling of temperatures during the night. San Antonio, witnessing the morning lows in the 60s, will likely feel the morning lows climb to the early 70s by mid-week and towards the weekend.
Tropical Concern over the Western Caribbean
Adding to the heat wave, the National Hurricane Center is keeping a close watch on the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico region, for a potential tropical depression brewing similar to last week’s Hurricane Helene. Forecasters suggest a 50% likelihood of the region producing at least a minor tropical depression by the end of the week.
There is a degree of uncertainty regarding the rout and strength of this potential tropical disturbance. Our models indicate a most probable forecast track east of Texas, possibly moving towards Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida. However, eventual changes cannot be ruled out over the next few days.
For San Antonio, the tropical moisture is likely to increase rain chances by the weekend and onwards, although the overall likelihood hinges on the Gulf developments.
Stay tuned to our updates on the evolving weather scenario in South Texas. Remember, protect yourself and your beloved ones from heat stress by limiting time in the sun and keeping yourself hydrated.